Economists’ Austin Predictions for 2011

Last week, four university economists made public predictions for a number of economic indicators for Austin in 2011. 

The Austin Chamber of Commerce held its annual Economic Forecast on December 9, 2010 at the Hilton Austin. Four economic leaders in higher education presented at the event and forecast their predictions for US GDP Growth, US Inflation Rate, Prime Interest Rate, 30 Year Mortgage Rate, Austin Job Growth, and Texas Job Growth. The experts were asked to look ahead one year and report their best estimates for these important economic statistics. 

Prior to the presentations, Mission Mortgage’s Mark Sprague made his own set of predictions as well.  Mark Sprague is a highly-regarded expert in the Austin market, specializing in real estate, residential development, and current economic conditions. We’ve decided to post the predictions from all five experts and we’ll check back in a year to see how they performed against the actual results. 

First, a look at the economists who were on the Chamber Panel that day:
• Dr. Stephen Gardner, Baylor University – Professor and researcher in Comparative Economic Systems and History of Economic Thought; Director of the McBride Center, international business programs; Chairman of the Department of Economics.
• Dr. Thomas Gilligan, University of Texas – Dean of the McCombs School of Business; expert in economics and political economy; previously taught at University of Southern California, Stanford Graduate School of Business, and the Kellogg School of Management.
• Dr. James LeSage, Texas State University – Professor at the McCoy College of Business Administration, Department of Finance and Economics. Previously taught at the University of Toledo and Bowling Green State University.
• Dr. Thomas Savings, Texas A&M – Director of the Private Enterprise Research Center and Distinguished Professor of Economics; Research specialist in Antitrust Economics, Monetary Economics, and Health Economics; Twice appointed by President George W. Bush as Public Trustee of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds.

The chart below summarizes the predictions for 2011:

We’d love to see your comments about these predictions and any predictions you’d like to make for 2011.  Which set of predictions do you think are most likely to prevail as the most accurate by this time next year? Submit your comments below.