Residential Strategies, Inc. has shared with us their forecast for home starts and closings for 2011. In a recent dialogue with Mark Sprague, Mission Mortgage’s Director of Business Development, RSI’s Ted Wilson, Principal, provided a look at the rest of 2010 and their estimates for next year.
Based on what has transpired so far this year and what they foresee in the remaining weeks of 2010, RSI is estimating that the Austin area will end up with approximately 6600 starts this year. Metrostudy, a national research organization that focuses on housing, reported 2009 housing starts in the Austin area at 6,490.¹ The small gain for 2010 is most notable in that it reverses a trend of 3 consecutive years of decline. At the peak in 2006, Metrostudy reported housing starts at 15,940 indicating just how quickly and dramatically the market has slowed.¹
RSI is forecasting home starts in 2011 to increase further, while still remaining far below our peak in 2006. Currently, RSI is forecasting 7450 starts for 2011, with 7100 closings. This prediction is calling for an increase of nearly 13% from 2010 to 2011. So, while the raw numbers are still far below peak, the percentage gain is notable. In the last 10 years, only from 2005 to 2006 did we see percentage gains in new home starts higher than 13% when there was a reported increase of 20%.¹
Mission Mortgage is honored to have strong relationships with Residential Strategies, Inc. and Metrostudy and we hope to continue sharing information from their wealth of research, knowledge, and experience. We highly recommend that anyone who is involved in the planning, development, and building of Austin’s residential communities look at the benefits to joining these two organizations. The information gained will be well worth the investment.